Global Food Access under Compound Shocks

How do climate events, shipping disruptions and household income interact to affect diet affordability?

Research Proposal · Planned study

1. Research problem

How do climate events, shipping disruptions and household income interact to affect diet affordability? The project would examine this question within complex systems & resilience, where institutional arrangements, measurable outcomes and the costs of implementation may point in different directions. It is designed as a falsifiable research programme rather than a claim that the proposed mechanism has already been demonstrated.

2. Working proposition

Compound shocks may have non-linear effects on nutrition access. This is a testable proposition, not an established result. Competing explanations and contexts in which the mechanism fails should be specified before data collection begins.

3. Research theses for examination

Mechanism: Compound shocks may have non-linear effects on nutrition access.
Boundary conditions: Assess whether the proposition remains plausible when jurisdiction, organisational maturity, resource constraints or stakeholder interests change.
Disconfirmation: Record which observations would favour an alternative explanation or show that the proposed approach adds no meaningful value.

4. Research design and methods

Build causal network simulations combining food prices, logistics and social indicators. The initial protocol should establish sampling criteria, the unit of analysis, definitions of variables or legal concepts, a transparent source register, and access and ethics approvals where necessary.

5. Evidence horizon and relevant developments

The 2026 State of Food Security and Nutrition report focuses on the cost and affordability of a healthy diet, distinguishing access to calories from access to nutritious food.

The World Bank’s June 2026 Global Economic Prospects supplies a documented baseline for macroeconomic growth and uncertainty. Country-specific effects still require primary data and sensitivity checks.

The cited publications provide current institutional context and candidate sources for the literature review. They do not certify the proposed hypothesis; original empirical work, careful comparison and jurisdiction-specific validation would still be required.

6. Planned work packages

Conceptual groundwork: Define the research object, terminology, competing frameworks and decision context.
Evidence mapping: Create an auditable inventory of relevant primary evidence, with dates, definitions, strengths and limitations.
Evaluation: Build causal network simulations combining food prices, logistics and social indicators; contrast results with alternative specifications, control cases or rival interpretations.
Critical review: Report missing observations, conflicting evidence, implementation costs and circumstances that limit transferability.
Translation into practice: Prepare the intended practical output and an independent review checklist.

7. Anticipated research product

Food-access resilience simulation and policy guide. The deliverable will be evaluated against the research question and the evidence collected.

8. Limitations, ethics and scholarly integrity

At this stage no original sample, statistical test, clinical cohort or experimental result is claimed. Any future research involving human participants, proprietary data, medical outcomes or regulated activities must obtain the applicable permissions. Publicly accessible official publications are cited for context only; their findings are not represented as findings of BBARTI.